2026 Central Florida Housing Market Predictions: What I See Coming Next (and Why the Data Backs It Up)
By Chris Creegan, Broker/Owner – Creegan Group
For the last few years, the housing market has felt anything but normal.
Wild swings in interest rates.
Extreme inventory shortages.
Headlines bouncing between “crash coming” and “prices will never fall.”
As we head into 2026, here’s my honest take as someone who’s been in this business since 2006 and navigated multiple cycles:
The housing market isn’t headed for a boom or a crash.
It’s headed for normalization.
Not the kind of “normal” we had in 2021.
More like a measured, balanced, skill-based market—and that’s actually good news for both buyers and sellers.
My 2026 Prediction: A More Rational Housing Market
Here’s what I believe will define the 2026 housing market:
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Home prices will rise modestly, not skyrocket
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Mortgage rates will stabilize, not collapse (No, we won’t see 3 or 4% mortgage rates)
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Inventory will slowly improve, but remain tight in desirable areas and/or desirable properties
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Negotiation and strategy will matter again
In short:
👉 2026 rewards preparation, pricing, and patience—not panic or speculation.
And importantly, this isn’t just my opinion. The largest housing data providers in the country are saying essentially the same thing.
Home Prices in 2026: Slow, Steady Growth (Not a Drop)
One of the biggest misconceptions I hear is, “Prices have to come down.”
That assumes supply suddenly overwhelms demand—and that’s just not happening.
What I expect (and what the data supports):
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Low single-digit appreciation nationally
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Strong neighborhoods and school districts outperform
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Overpriced homes sit longer—but correctly priced homes still sell
Major housing analysts are forecasting roughly 1–2% price growth nationally in 2026, which aligns with what I’m seeing on the ground: prices aren’t exploding, but they’re also not falling off a cliff.
That’s a healthy market.
Mortgage Rates in 2026: Lower Than the Peaks, Higher Than the Past
I don’t believe we’re going back to 3% (or even 4%) interest rates anytime soon—and frankly, we shouldn’t.
My expectation:
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Rates settle in the low-to-mid 6% range (High 5’s on mortgage rates will be very doable)
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Less volatility than 2023–2024
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Buyers stop “waiting for the perfect rate” and start making decisions again
Most national forecasts agree: rates ease slightly but stay elevated by historical standards. That creates a market where affordability improves gradually, not overnight.
Sales Activity: More Movement, Less Frenzy
When rates stabilize—even if they don’t drop dramatically—people adjust.
In 2026, I expect:
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More homes sold than 2024–2025
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Pent-up demand from buyers who delayed moves
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More listings as sellers accept that today’s rates are the new normal
National forecasts point to a small rebound in home sales, which supports what many experienced agents already know: people don’t pause life forever. They adapt.
Why 2026 Feels Like 2019 (Not 2021)
This is an important distinction.
2026 is shaping up to feel a lot more like 2018–2019:
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Buyers can negotiate
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Inspections matter again
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Sellers need a real pricing and marketing strategy
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Great homes still sell quickly—average ones don’t
Industry leaders like Brian Buffini have been saying the same thing: this is a skills-based market again, where experience and execution separate outcomes.
From my seat, that’s exactly what’s happening.
Dave Ramsey’s Perspective (Which I Largely Agree With)
Everyone knows I’m a huge Dave Ramsey supporter and Dave Ramsey consistently emphasizes something I also believe strongly:
👉 Trying to time the market rarely works. This is true for the housing market as much as the stock market.
Ramsey and his team have pointed out that most credible forecasters still expect prices to rise modestly in 2026, not crash. Their advice—buy when you’re financially ready, not when headlines scare you—fits perfectly with a normalized market.
That’s especially true if you’re buying a primary residence, not speculating.
What This Means for Central Florida Buyers & Sellers
National trends matter—but real estate is always local.
Here’s how I see this playing out specifically in Central Florida:
For Buyers
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Less competition than the peak years
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More room for inspections and concessions
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Better experience if you’re prepared and realistic
For Sellers
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Pricing matters more than ever
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Presentation, staging, and marketing are critical
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Homes don’t sell just because they’re listed anymore
- Realtor selection is a critical factor. Sellers will need a Realtor with a huge network, substantial marketing budget, large team, and heavily experienced. All other factors being equal, the Realtor can be the difference in tens of thousands of dollars.
For Everyone
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The market rewards strategy, not emotion
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Good advice beats internet noise
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The right plan matters more than perfect timing
My Bottom Line for 2026
I don’t see fear.
I don’t see a crash.
And I don’t see another frenzy.
I see a grown-up housing market.
One where:
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Decisions are made thoughtfully
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Professionals add real value
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And long-term fundamentals matter again
And the fact that Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com, Reuters, Dave Ramsey, and Brian Buffini are all pointing in the same general direction doesn’t surprise me—it confirms what many of us in the field already know.
If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply trying to understand what 2026 may hold for your situation, the conversation shouldn’t start with headlines.
It should start with a plan.
About the Author
Chris Creegan is the Broker/Owner of Creegan Group, a high-volume real estate brokerage serving Central Florida. Licensed since 2006, Chris has guided thousands of buyers and sellers through multiple market cycles and is known for data-driven strategy, local expertise, and straight-talk market insight.